What was learned in Nagano

Johnny Weir and Brian Joubert are back. Jeremy Abbott and Daisuke Takahashi are halfway there.
After disappointing Grand Prix starts for both Weir (fourth in Russia) and Joubert (fourth in Paris), Nagano held a great deal of importance to both men. Joubert redeemed himself technically, showing a quad in each program, but his jumping plans for the Olympic season have been a bit derailed. Joubert plans two or three quads, but has been unable to successfully attain that benchmark since he landed three in his free skate at 2006 Cup of Russia. He went for two in France, but disaster struck and thus was forced to play it safe in Nagano and he only attempted one in his free skate there,. The 2007 world champion says he gained confidence from good performances last week and will work towards adding more quads for Europeans and the Olympics, but whether he sticks to this strategy is anyone's guess. So far, many of the top men have played it safe this season and opted against the four-revolution jump, but the pendulum may shift in Joubert's favor as the Olympics draw near.

In contrast to Russia, where he seemed to lose focus and interest in his programs, Weir's sass and style in Japan equaled that of his costumes - pink with a tassel for his rumba-themed short, white and feathery for his free skate. Choosing a different choreographer placed Weir's skating on a different trajectory, as he now involves the audience in his programs as opposed to relegating them to watch from afar. Performance quality aside, there's an outstanding question surrounding Weir's skating: where does he go from here? His total score in Japan, 217.70, is well off the tallies of the top men who have scored in the 230s and 240s this season. He has few options to increase his technical difficulty - Weir has never landed a clean quad in competition. If Weir wants to contend with the top men, he has to find a way to do more and do it well.

2009 U.S. champion Jeremy Abbott came roaring back to competition - if only partway. Abbott was second after the short program with a beautiful, free flowing, care-free skate and but dropped off the podium after a disastrous free skate. The good news is that it was Abbott's first event of the season, he attempted a quad and his component scores were good. The bad news? Abbott fell on his quad and had it downgraded, the ugly double-whammy of figure skating that earns a skater zero points.

Daisuke Takahashi also showed flashes of his former self. His personality, charm and showmanship were back, but jumps and stamina were an issue for the 2007 world silver medalist. Takahashi owns the highest free skate score ever recorded, and that skate included two quads. In Japan, Takahashi attempted one - and he fell and was downgraded.

Like Weir and Joubert were prior to Japan, Abbott and Takahashi will be expecting much more of themselves when they meet again at Skate Canada.

Don't forget about Miki Ando
With her second Grand Prix win, Miki Ando is Japan's leading lady and figures to be South Korean Kim Yu-Na's top challenger at the Grand Prix Final. Ando was conservative in both her Grand Prix events, knowing that she didn't need to attempt her hardest jumps in order to win, and that strategy paid off. But if she wants to pose a serious threat to Kim, she'll need to attempt her triple-triple and double Axel-triple toe in the free skate. And remember that while everyone was focused on Kim and Mao Asada's duel at 2009 Worlds, Ando, a former world champion herself, quietly bested Asada for the bronze medal

Wagner's arrival
With a silver and a bronze from her Grand Prixs, American Ashley Wagner has emerged from the pack of U.S. ladies and could make her first Final, which would be valuable experience for the 18-year-old. In her second year with coach Priscilla Hill, Wagner has transformed into a beautiful, artistic skater while maintaining her aggressiveness and attack. She'll need to focus on correcting the entry edge into her triple Lutz and increase her stamina to maintain speed through her footwork sequence in her free skate. In Russia and in Japan, Wagner set the standard for the other U.S. ladies.

Pair skaters are tough, and Russia's Yuko Kavaguti is a prime example
For at least the third time in the past two years, Russia's Yuko Kavaguti took a hard fall on her throw quad Salchow attempt. As is permissible in the rules, after she took a few minutes to regroup Kavaguti and partner Aleksandr Smirnov resumed their program where they had left off, and she completed the remainder of her elements as if nothing had happened. But in fact, something had happened: Kavaguti said her shoulder popped out of its socket on the fall and she left Big Hat with her arm in a sling. Kavaguti had an almost identical fall on the throw quad Salchow (and subsequent shoulder problem) at 2008 Russian Nationals and at 2009 Worlds, where she hit her cheek on the ice on the very same throw (and ended up with the bronze medal).

The issue at stake is risk versus reward. Falling on the quad, even in dramatic fashion, will earn a team four points - the risky throw itself is worth eight, take away three points on the Grade of Execution and another point for the fall. That's about the same as a throw triple Salchow, which has a base value of four and a half points.. The top Chinese pairs earn positive Grades of Execution on their throw triples (Grand Prix Japan champions Pang Qing and Tong Jian earned more than 6.5 points for a well-executed throw triple Salchow).- and so far own three first places and one second place on the Grand Prix.

So is the risk worth the reward? Kavaguti, Smirnov and their coach, the legendary Tamara Moskvina, seem to think so. And at the 2006 Olympics, a crashed throw quad Salchow helped China's Zhang Dan and Zhang Hao earn a silver medal.

Of note...
Early Vancouver insight? The top scores so far are as follows, but note the asterisks before you make your Olympic podium predictions:
Men: Nobunari Oda (JPN), Yevgeny Plushenko (RUS), Brian Joubert (FRA), Evan Lysacek (USA)*
Ladies: Yu-Na Kim (KOR), Akiko Suzuki (JPN), Mao Asada (JPN), Miki Ando (JPN)
Pairs: Shen Xue/Zhao Hongbo (CHN), Pang Qing/Tong Jian (CHN), Yuko Kavaguti/Aleksandr Smirnov (RUS), Maria Mukhortova/Maksim Trankov (RUS) **
Dance: Meryl Davis/Charlie White (USA), Tessa Virtue/Scott Moir (CAN), Tanith Belbin/Ben Agosto (USA), Nathalie Pechalat/Fabian Bourzat (FRA) ***

*2006 Torino Silver medalist Stephane Lambiel is not competing on the Grand Prix. Patrick Chan has yet to compete this Olympic season. He begins at home at Skate Canada.

**But don't forget two-time and reigning world champions Aliona Savchenko & Robin Szolkowy (GER) who had an uncharacterstic 3rd place finish at Grand Prix France and will likely redeem themselves and post a top score at Skate Canada.

*** The dance picture remains unclear, as 2009 world champions Oksana Domnina and Maksim Shabalin and 2008 world champions Isabelle Delobel and Olivier Schoenfelder are sitting out the Grand Prix season.